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What's better 90% Probability or 70% Probability Iron Condors and Credit Spreads?

Executive Summary:  There are many index iron condor & credit spread options advisory newsletters on the market today.  Iron condors & credit spreads are popular because they are easy to understand and they generate income of 6% to 10% ROI per month.  Most iron condor newsletters either recommend 70% probability trades or 90% probability trades. This article proposes a more thorough methodology to analyze the risk of each approach, discusses the pros and cons, and attempts to dispel possible misinformation.

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