Response:  Here are a few things to think about as you trade options or learn how to trade options, and ponder the interrelations of the underlying index, implied volatility and strike price placement when you trade options on credit spreads and iron condors – for  these option trading strategies:

1)    Implied volatility of the underlying index is one of the values used to calculate the price and probability of an options leg expiring ITM (in the money) or OTM (out of the money)

2)    Implied volatility for the RUT (Russell 2000 index) is RVX, and as of this writing it’s around 36

3)    Implied volatility for the SPY (and ETF that tracks at 1/10^th the value of the S&P 500 Index – SPX) is the VIX and it’s around 26

4)    Because the implied volatility for the RUT is higher, the RUT moves a larger % on a daily basis as compared to the avg % daily move of the SPY, so this is why we can get a larger % distance between our short calls and puts on the RUT when opening an iron condor – this option strategy

5)    The return on a RUT credit spread is calculated as follows, using the example of having $1000:  Let’s say we bring in 70 cents credit on the RUT Dec 640/650 bull put spread; this is a 10 point wide spread where each spread requires $1000 of maintenance; thus we are able to open qty 1 of this spread, and we bring in $70 of premium; our risk capital is $1000 – $70 = $930; our potential return on this trade is 70/930 = 7.5%;

6)    The return on a SPY credit spread is calculated as follows, using the example of having $1000:  Let’s say we bring in 13 cents credit on the SPY Dec 115/117 bull put spread; this is a 2 point wide spread, where each spread requires $200 of maintenance; thus we are able to open qty 5 of this spread, and we bring in $13 x 5 = $65 of premium; our risk capital is $1000 – $65 = $935; our potential return on this trade is 65/935 = 6.9%

7)    In general, the risk/reward nature of the majority of our credit spreads is the same, whether it’s a 10 point wide spread on the RUT (Russell 2000 Index), a 5 point wide spread on the MNX (NASDAQ 100 index) or a 2 point wide spread on the SPY (S&P 500 index) where each has an 87% to 91% probability of expiring OTM and profitable, the bottom bull put spreads bring in about 5% to 8% in 30 days or less, and the top bear call spreads bring in about 3.5% to 5.5% in 30 days or less.  As a result, when the bottom and top credit spreads are combined to create an iron condor, the overall potential ROI is about 8.5% to 13.5% in 30 days or less.

Answer:   It depends on how much cash you plan to invest in credit spreads for the month.   It’s good not to put all of your eggs in one basket, so it’s probably not wise to invest more than 50% of your portfolio in a single, non-directional strategy such as credit spreads.  Let’s say you have a $100k portfolio and decide to allocate 45% of your portfolio to credit spreads for the next 30 days.  In this case you would open qty 45 of the RUT bull put spreads.   If you want to further diversify, which would be good idea, you would open a mix of RUT, OEX and SPY spreads, the underlying vehicles that we primarily focus on in the monthlycashthruoptions advisory service,  using the $45k.  Each RUT spread, which is a 10 point spread because we open RUT spreads with 10 points between the sell leg and buy leg, requires $1000 of maintenance to open 1 spread.  Each OEX spread, which is a 5 point spread because we open OEX spreads that have 5 points between the sell leg and buy leg, requires $500 of maintenance to open 1 spread.  Each SPY spread, which is a 2 point spread because we open SPY spreads that have 2 points between the sell leg and buy leg, requires $200 of maintenance to open 1 spread.   Back to our $45k, we would allocate $15k to the RUT spreads, $15k to the OEX spreads and $15k to the SPY spreads.   Thus, we would open 15 of the RUT spreads, 30 of the OEX spreads, and 75 of the SPY spreads.   One negative of opening 2 point wide spreads is that we open many more spreads for a given dollar amount, so commissions become a problem.  Thus, we do our best to open more 10 point wide spreads, and fewer 2 point wide spreads.

Answer:   The required cash (risk capital) to open a 3 point wide credit spread is the $300 of maintenance required by the broker, minus the premium that we collected when we first opened the spread.  For the SPY Dec 108/111 bull put spread, we brought in about $25 of premium per spread.  Thus, the actual risk capital per spread for this case is $300 – $25 = $275.  To calculate the number of spreads that would be opened in your autotrade account, you would divide your $4000 cash allocated per trade by $275, which equals 14 spreads.

Answer:   Trading credit spreads on the SPX, the S&P 500 index, is like the Roach Hotel….you can check in, but you can’t check out.  Opening credit spreads on the SPX seems to be just fine and it feels great to bring in a solid 9% premium on a 90% probability spread that has less than 30 days to expiration.   However, even though there is a lot of liquidity on the SPX options, it doesn’t act like it where if our trade gets into trouble, it will cost 20% to 30% of our risk capital to make an adjustment, such as rolling it into the same month or rolling it into the following month.   In other words, we won’t have many chances to roll our spread if it gets into trouble and we’ll pretty much be taking a 50% to 60% loss after rolling it just 2 times, which is not good.  When trading credit spreads on the RUT, for example, if our spreads unexpectedly go in-the-money, it’s quite possible to roll it for 6 to 9 months, if required, and we can still get back at least 50% of our maintenance, and sometimes as high as 70% of the original maintenance.   One possible reason that it’s difficult and expensive to make adjustments on SPX credit spreads is that it’s only traded on one exchange, the CBOE, and not on the other 7 exchanges.   In contrast, options on the RUT are traded on 6 exchanges, and options on the SPY are traded on all 8 exchanges.  It seems that the more exchanges the options are traded on, the more competition there is and thus the cheaper it is to make adjustments on the trade if necessary.

Answer:   The RUT provides the best strike price placement, usually above past resistance levels and below past support levels, while paying a nice premium when opening a bear call or bull put credit spread options.  It also has good liquidity, i.e. a high number of options contracts are traded daily on the RUT, which allows us to easily get into and out of our trades. 

The next best underlying index to trade credit spread and iron condor options is the SPY, (and ETF that tracks at 1/10th of the value of the  S&P 500 index – SPX) but in order to get the best return we need to open 2 point wide spreads, which has a drawback.  (a 2 point wide spread has two points between the leg that we sell and the leg that we buy)  The negative of a 2 point wide spread, as compared to a 10 point wide spread that we would open on the RUT, is that we have to open 5x the number of spreads to allocate the same amount of cash and this has higher commissions.  Also, the liquidity is very high on the SPY….i.e. a million or more options contracts change hands every day – and this is both good and bad.   The good part is that we can easily get in and out of trades….even during volatile times when the market is moving a lot.   The bad is that when the market is bouncing…and let’s say we need to make an adjustment or roll the spread, because there is so much liquidity we have to pay what the market is asking (between the bid and ask prices)  and we rarely can get a special low price that is outside the bidask price range.   On the other hand, if the market is moving a lot and we need to make an adjustment on the RUT, many times we’ll be able to get a cheap price that is outside of the bid/ask prices.

For a case study that compares and contrasts 2, 3, 4, 5 , 7 and 10 point wide credit spreads on the SPY please go to the Learning Center at http://www.monthlycashthruoptions.com/LearningCenter.htm  and read entry #6 – “why we usually open 2 and 3 point wide spreads on the SPY and IWM”.  

Regarding the SPX, you have to be super careful in trading credit spreads and iron condors on this underlying index.  I liken it to Hotel California….it’s really easy and everyone is friendly when you check in, but when things get ugly and you need to get out of your trade, you’ll usually get your head handed to you. (i.e. it will cost a lot to close out your spread and you’ll probably take at least a 25% loss)    Overall, do your best to avoid trading credit spreads on the SPX.

Answer:   In a very rare occasion that we get stuck with ITM credit spreads, we will usually roll them and keep them alive….and eventually get 50% to 70% of our money back.   Unfortunately, and fortunately, I’ve become an expert on rolling because some of my spreads went ITM during the Oct 2008 crash, and after rolling them I got back 65% of my maintenance.   Not bad for a total melt-down.  (Just as a side note, most credit spread traders, including editor-in–chief’s from other credit spread newsletters don’t have experience in rolling because most just throw in the towel and let their subscribers take a total loss.  I personally hate to lose money and will fight to the end to get back at least some of my money) 

Answering your question specifically, if some of our spreads went ITM and we didn’t want to roll them but just let them expire, the credit spread on the RUT and SPX (classified as broad based indexes) are cash settled, so cash would be withdrawn from our account.   If the spread went completely ITM and we let it expire, we would lose all of our risk capital, which is the required maintenance less the premium collected.

Per options on the SPY and IWM (which are ETFs that track at 1/10^th the value of the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes, respectively) the ETF shares would be PUT to us where we have to buy the shares at the strike price and the shares would be deposited into our account.

Again, in general with this situation, and this is only for the emergency case where the stock market crashes 12% or more in just a few days and we get stuck with ITM bull put spreads, we will roll our spreads month to month and there is a very good chance we’ll get back at least half of our money, and more like 60% to 70%.

Response:   Regarding liquidity.…yes, if too many folks start trading index credit spreads, for example on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes and ETFs, the risk/reward characteristics of our credit spreads will become less attractive.  So far, however,  there seems to be plenty of  liquidity and the placement of the strike prices are still good.   Luckily, credit spreads are a lot harder than they look, so a certain % of participants get hit every month, scaring them and washing them out..…so it’s my guess that there will be plenty of liquidity for a long time to come.

Answer:    So far we’ve placed 4 options trades in the auto trade accounts for the January cycle.  Three, 2 point wide SPY credit spreads and one, 10 point wide SPX credit spread options.   We  send a maximum of 5 trade alerts each month that uses 100% of your cash, and so far we’ve sent four.  (at least our goal is to send 5 auto-trade trade alerts, but sometimes we’re not able to invest all of your cash for a particular month….like in the last 3 months due to how the market has been behaving)

The reason we’re focusing on the S&P 500 index this month is that we’re a little concerned that the RUT might spike-up to play “catch-up”….so we’re under weighting on the RUT and over weighting on the big-cap S&P 500 index this month.  Because the US dollar is strengthening, this also will put a little downward pressure on the big-cap stocks that reside in the S&P 500 index, which gives us a higher probability that our top January bear call spreads will expire profitable.

Per the topic of diversification, because these are indexes, they are already diversified since each is composed of hundreds, if not thousands of stocks.   The big cap index does move a little differently as compared to how the mid-cap and small-cap indexes move, so this does provide a small amount of diversification, but we don’t want to use all of these indexes just for the sake of trying to diversify.  We  look at each index as a independent trading vehicle and if the technicals, strike price placement and levels of premium look good offering us a decent risk/reward profile, we’ll open the trade.    In the process,  if we’re able to open credit spreads on multiple indexes giving us a little bit of added diversification, all the better.

By Brad Reinard, Editor-in-Chief, monthlycashthruoptions.com

Here are the assumptions we use when making our calculations:
1) Commission = $1/options contract or $2/spread. (we show additional commission rates in the spread sheet summary below)
2) $5000 of cash is available to open the spreads
3) Per technical analysis, the trade stays out-of-the-money (OTM) and profitable, and we let the spread expire worthless, which is 100% profitable for us, the seller.  Thus, we only pay commission to open the spreads and we call this “one-way” commissions. (in contrast to round-trip commissions where we pay to open and close the trades)
4) All spreads have 31 days until expiration
5) We simplify the number of spreads that we can open by dividing the available $5000 of cash by the required maintenance.

Below is the SPY Aug 89/90 bull put spread which has the following characteristics:

1) It’s a 1 point spread (i.e. 1 point between the sell leg and the buy leg)
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $100 per spread (1 point spread * $100/point)
3) 50 spreads can be opened ($5000/$100 of required maintenance per spread)
4) Premium collected is $15 credit x 50 spreads = $750
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $750 of premium collected = $4250
6) One-way commission at $1/contract is 50 spreads x $2/spread = $100.
7) Commission as a % of premium collected is 100/750 = 13.3%
8) ROI after one-way commission is (750-100)/4250 = 15.3%

Below is the SPY Aug 88/90 bull put spread which has the following characteristics:

1) It’s a 2 point spread (i.e. 2 points between the sell leg and the buy leg)
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $200 per spread (2 point spread * $100/point)
3) 25 spreads can be opened ($5000/$200 required maintenance per spread)
4) Premium collected is $25 credit x 25 spreads = $625
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $625 of premium collected = $4375
6) One-way commission at $1/contract is 25 spreads x $2/spread = $50.
7) One-way Commission as a % of premium collected is 50/625 = 8%
8) Return after one-way commission is (625-50)/4375 = 13.1%

Below is the SPY Aug 87/90 bull put spread which has the following characteristics:

1) It’s a 3 point spread
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $300 per spread
3) 16 spreads can be opened ($5000/$300)
4) Premium collected is $35 credit x 16 spreads = $560
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $560 of premium collected = $4440
6) One-way commission is 16 spreads x $2/spread = $32.
7) One-way commission as a % of premium collected is 32/560 = 5.7%
8) Return after one-way commission is (560 – 32)/4440 = 11.8%

Below is the SPY Aug 86/90 bull put spread which has the following characteristics:

1) It’s a 4 point spread
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $400 per spread
3) 12 spreads can be opened ($5000/$400)
4) Premium collected is $44 credit x 12 spreads = $528
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $528 of premium collected = $4472
6) One-way commission is 12 spreads x $2/spread = $24.
7) One-way commission as a % of premium collected is 24/528 = 4.5%
8) Return after one-way commission is (528 – 24)/4472 = 11.2%

Below is the SPY Aug 85/90 bull put spread with the following characteristics:
1) It’s a 5 point spread
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $500 per spread
3) 10 spreads can be opened
4) Premium collected is $50 credit x 10 spreads = $500
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $500 of premium collected = $4500
6) One-way commission is 10 spreads x $2/spread = $20
7) One-way commission as a % of premium collected is 20/500 = 4%
8) Return after one-way commission is (500 – 20)/4500 = 10.6%

Below is the SPY Aug 83/90 bull put spread with the following characteristics:
1) It’s a 7 point spread
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $700 per spread
3) 7 spreads can be opened ($5000/$700 required maintenance per spread)
4) Premium collected is $58 credit x 7 spreads = $406
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $406 of premium collected = $4594
6) One-way commission is 7 spreads x $2/spread = $14
7) One-way commission as a % of premium collected is 14/406 = 3.4%
8) Return after commission is (406 – 14)/4594 = 8.5%

Below is the SPY Aug 80/90 bull put spread with the following characteristics:
1) It’s a 10 point spread
2) Required maintenance by the broker is $1000 per spread
3) 5 spreads can be opened
4) Premium collected is $65 credit x 5 spreads = $325
5) Risk capital is $5000 in maintenance – $325 of premium collected = $4675
6) One-way commission is 5 spreads x $2/spread = $10
7) One-way commission as a % of premium collected is 10/325 = 3%
8) Return after one-way commission is (325 – 10)/4675 = 6.7%

Below is a grid that summarizes our analysis.   For a larger view of this grid please visit the Monthly Cash Thru Options Learning Center at http://www.monthlycashthruoptions.com/LearningCenter.htm and read the entry “Why we usually open 3 point credit spreads on the SPY”.    If you would like access to this spreadsheet, please contact us at support@monthlycashthruoptions and we’ll forward it to you.

Conclusion:   From the analysis above, we like the 3 point spread where it gives us an excellent return, minimizes the commission hit, gives us flexibility to make adjustments when needed if it “gets under pressure”, and the required maintenance is low enough to allow investors with different account sizes to participate in the trade.  When we say that we need “flexibility” to make adjustments, when the spread gets under pressure from a fast moving underlying index (the SPY in this case) we implement the “stay ahead of the wave” strategy by “clicking-down” our strike price to move further away from the underlying index and we open more spreads to bring in more premium. If we use the 3 point spread we have the flexibility to “click-down” 3 times if needed. (in this case we are talking about the bottom, bull put spread) For example, let’s say we have a SPY 90/93 bull put spread and 10 days after we open this spread the SPY sells-off putting our 90/93 bull put spread “under pressure”. In this situation, we would not yet close-out the SPY 90/93 spread but we would watch it closely, and in parallel we would “stay ahead of the wave” and click-down a strike to the SPY 89/92 bull put spread (in the same month) and open some to continue to bring in premium. And if we need to click-down again, we have the flexibility to click-down one more time to the SPY 88/91 bull put spread to allow us to keep bringing in premium. If we need to click down even further, we won’t be able to open the SPY 87/90 bull put spread until we close-out the original SPY 90/93 bull put spread because the 90 strike overlaps and will cancel each other out; however, this is ok because if the underlying SPY is dropping this fast, and just by the fact that we’ve already clicked down 3 times, we probably will need to close out the original SPY 90/93 anyway to cut our losses and to minimize any further downside. With this said, and especially for bull put spreads, we would not engage in the “stay ahead of the wave” strategy unless the “market timing” indicators were giving us the green light that the economy and the market are “healthy” and therefore it’s ok to keep clicking down and bringing in premium.   For more on how we Market Time, please go to http://www.monthlycashthruoptions.com/WhyMarketTiming.htm.   For more on the “staying ahead of the wave strategy”, please read the entries “what if the market surges, how do we protect ourselves”? and “what if the market crashes, how do we protect ourselves?” in this Learning Center.

About The Author
Brad Reinard is Editor-in-Chief of Monthly Cash Thru Options LLC, a leading index credit spread & iron condor options advisory newsletter, which has the following track record:   69% YTD 2009 (thru Aug); 33% 2008; 63% 2007; 42% 2006; 50% 2005.  For more information on the technical analysis that we perform on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (RUT) indexes, along with how to trade trading tips on iron condors and credit spreads please visit www.monthlycashthruoptions.com or call Brad directly toll-free at 877-248-7455.  Monthly Cash Thru Options LLC is located in San Jose, California, the heart of Silicon Valley.

By Brad Reinard, Editor-in-Chief, monthlycashthruoptions.com
Last Update August 2, 2009

Implied Volatility (IV) is a measure of how much the “market place” expects the price of an underlying stock or index to move; i.e. the volatility that the market itself is implying for the underlying stock or index. The VIX index represents the Implied Volatility for the S&P 500 index (SPX), therefore giving us a prediction of the potential size of future price swings for the SPX. Wall Street, in general, uses the VIX to represent the volatility of the stock market as a whole, and not just the SPX. One of the variables of pricing an option is IV. Thus, when IV for an underlying stock or index increases, the price of options on that stock or index increases. Conversely, when IV for an underlying stock or index drops the price of options on that stock or index decreases. For traders like us who write (sell) index credit spreads and iron condors, we like higher IV because we can collect more premium for the options that we write.

Implied Volatility (IV) is also called the fear index. When the market goes down the VIX goes up – i.e. investors are getting more fearful. On the contrary, when the market rallies, IV drops and fear subsides because investors start feeling more comfortable with the market. Therefore, there is an inverse relationship between the underlying index or stock and its IV. Figure 1 shown below demonstrates the inverse relationship of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) to the VIX. As you can see, when the RUT sells-off, investors get more fearful and the VIX climbs; and when the RUT rallies, investors feel more comfortable with the market and the VIX subsides.

Sometimes the VIX moves in the same direction as the underlying index or stock. Figure 2 below shows that in May, June, and July of 2007 the VIX trended upward along with the market. This is a sign that the market could be topping-out and is ready for a pause or correction. The psychology behind this is that even though the market is trending upward and “looking” healthy, investors are getting worried that the market is getting over extended and/or the fundamentals behind the economy are slowly deteriorating. Therefore, when we see the situation where the VIX (fear) trends upward along with an upward trending market we need to be careful and watch the market closely for a possible correction.

Another observation that we can see in Figure 2 is that the VIX many times will increase just prior to an event such as the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting where they make the decision to either raise interest rates, hold them steady or lower them. The VIX climbs because there is uncertainty on what the outcome will be. This is what happened in late June, as shown, where the VIX spiked up to almost 19. However, as soon as the Fed announced their decision on interest rates and the uncertainty diminished, the VIX immediately deflated back down to 16. We sometimes want to time the writing of our credit spreads with events like this since the quick spike of the VIX will substantially increase the price of the credit spreads options that we are writing (selling).

To summarize, below are some general trading rules using the VIX when deciding to open 30 to 40 day index bull put credit spreads, bear call credit spreads or iron condor options: 1) If the VIX is holding steady and is not dropping from day to day when we are about 30 to 40 days out to expiration, we can usually take our time to open our spreads for that month and gradually “collect” premium over a two week period. 2) If the VIX is slowly dropping day to day when we are 30 to 40 days out to expiration, we then will have to move more quickly and open our trades before the premium of the credit spreads that we’re selling “dries up”. 3) Once we open our bottom bull put spreads, and if the VIX starts to creep up from the time we opened our trades, we need to closely monitor the VIX because it could be warning us that a “hurricane” is coming, where we might need to close our bull put spreads early and only focus on the top bear call spreads for that particular month.

About The Author
Brad Reinard is Editor-in-Chief of Monthly Cash Thru Options LLC, a leading index credit spread & iron condor options advisory newsletter, which has the following track record:   69% YTD 2009 (thru Aug); 33% 2008; 63% 2007; 42% 2006; 50% 2005.  For more information on the technical analysis that we perform on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (RUT) indexes, along with trading tips on iron condors and credit spreads please visit www.monthlycashthruoptions.com or call Brad directly toll-free at 877-248-7455.  Monthly Cash Thru Options LLC is located in San Jose, California, the heart of Silicon Valley.